End poverty in all its forms everywhere

Global efforts to eradicate extreme poverty have faced significant setbacks by the COVID-19 pandemic and a series of major shocks during 2020-22. The pandemic caused extreme poverty to increase in 2020 for the first time in decades, reversing global progress by three years. Recovery has been uneven, with low-income countries lagging behind. With the ongoing poly-crisis, ending poverty by 2030 appears increasingly out of reach, particularly in regions that lack the fiscal capacity to cope with economic stresses. 

Target 1.1: o Extreme poverty levels returned to pre-pandemic levels in most countries by 2022, except in low-income countries where recovery has been slower. In 2022, 9% of the world's population or 712 million people were living in extreme poverty, an increase of 23 million people compared to 2019. If current trends continue, 590 million people, or 6.9% of the world’s population will still live in extreme poverty by 2030. 

o The share of the world’s working population living in poverty has steadily decreased, from 8.4% in 2015 to 6.9% in 2023. However, nearly 241 million workers globally were still living in extreme poverty in 2023 and little positive change is expected in 2024.

Target 1.2: Though data covering the period of COVID-19 are limited, the pandemic is likely to have slowed progress made in halving national poverty rates. Given historical trends, less than 30% of countries worldwide will have halved poverty by 2030. 

Target 1.3: In 2023, only 28.2% of child globally received child cash benefits, compared to 22.1% in 2015, leaving 1.4 billion children aged 0-15 without coverage. To guarantee at least a basic level of social protection for all children, upper- and lower-middle-income countries would need to invest an additional US$98.1 billion and US$88.8 billion, respectively, while low-income countries would require an additional US$59.6 billion. 

Target 1.5: Economic losses due to disasters remained stubbornly high in recent years and showed no sign of alleviation. Between 2015 and 2022 direct economic loss has been reported to exceed more than $115 billion per year worldwide, which amounted to 0.3% of the GDP of the reporting countries. 

Target 1.a: Data from approximately 100 countries show that the proportion of total government spending on essential services (education, health and social protection) is approximately 50%, with an average of 60% amongst advanced economies and 40% amongst emerging market and developing economies. While this indicator trends slightly upward for both groups over the past two decades, the gap between them remains stable at approximately 20 percentage points.

Since 2015, global poverty reduction was already slowing down and the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic reversed three decades of steady progress with the number of people living in extreme poverty increasing for the first time in a generation. Recovery from the pandemic has been slow and uneven as the world is presently facing multiple geopolitical, socioeconomic, and climatic risks. Given current trends, 575 million people (nearly 7% of the world’s population) will still be living in extreme poverty in 2030 compared to 800 million in 2015 (or 10.8%). Eradicating extreme poverty will be particularly difficult in sub-Saharan Africa and conflict-affected areas. Despite the expansion of social protection during COVID-19, over 4 billion people globally remain entirely unprotected. A surge in action and investment to enhance job opportunities and extend social services to the most excluded is crucial to delivering on the central commitment to ending poverty.

• Target 1.1: Since 2019, 70 million more people were pushed back into extreme poverty - currently defined as those who live on less than $2.15 per person per day at 2017 purchasing power parity. The rate increased from 8.5% in 2019 to 9.3% in 2020. By the end of 2022, nowcasting suggests 8.4% of the world population or as many as 670 million people could still be living in extreme poverty today and that the figure will drop to 575 million by 2030 – a fall of less than 30% since 2015.
• Target 1.2: Given historical trends, only one-third of countries will have halved their national poverty rates by 2030 from 2015.
• Target 1.3: By 2020, only 47% of the global population was effectively covered by at least one social protection cash benefit, slightly improved from 45% in 2015.  Only 26% of children under 15 received a social protection benefit; only one in three persons with severe disabilities worldwide receive a disability benefit; only 35% of workers are covered in case of work injury; and only 18.6% of unemployed workers worldwide are effectively covered.
• Target 1.4: Shifting public resources towards essential services is one of the key policy interventions for reducing poverty and building a better social safety net. The 2021 data for 100 countries shows that the global average proportion of total government spending on essential services is approximately 53%, with an overall average of 62% for advanced economies and 44% for emerging market and developing economies.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic reversed the steady progress of poverty reduction over the past 25 years. This unprecedented reversal is being further exacerbated by rising inflation and the impacts of the war in Ukraine. It is estimated these combined crises will lead to an additional 75 million-95 million people living in extreme poverty in 2022 compared with pre-pandemic projections. Almost all countries have introduced new short-term social protection measures in response to the COVID-19 crisis to protect people’s health, jobs and income. If these measures continue, they will provide the needed assistance for the poor and help them move out of poverty. 

Between 2015 and 2018, global poverty continued its historical decline, with the global poverty rate falling from 10.1 per cent in 2015 to 8.6 per cent in 2018. Nowcasts suggest that owing to the COVID-19 pandemic, the global poverty rate increased sharply from 8.3 per cent in 2019 to 9.2 per cent in 2020, representing the first increase in extreme poverty since 1998 and the largest increase since 1990 and setting back poverty reduction by about three years. The losses have been much higher for low-income countries, where poverty reduction has been set back by between eight and nine years. Although the poverty rate is projected to decrease to 8.7 per cent in 2021, it was still higher than the pre-pandemic level. 

In 2020, for the first time in two decades, the world’s share of workers living with their families below the international poverty line increased, from 6.7 per cent in 2019 to 7.2 per cent, meaning that an additional 8 million workers were pushed into poverty. Although the working poverty rate decreased slightly in 2021 to 6.9 per cent, it was still higher than the pre-pandemic rate.

By 2020, only 47% of the global population were effectively covered by at least one social protection cash benefit, leaving 4.1 billion people unprotected. In response to the COVID-19 crisis, more than 1,700 social protection measures (mostly short-term) were announced by 209 countries and territories.

Based on reporting from 80 countries on disasters of all origins, including COVID-19, the disaster mortality rate in 2020 was 5.74 persons per 100,000 population. While this figure reflects significant underreporting, it is already in stark contrast to that for the period 2015-2019, when the disaster-related mortality rate averaged at 0.93 person per 100,000 population. At least 8 per cent of the disaster-related mortality in 2020 is estimated to be due to COVID-19 pandemic, which has been responsible for a considerable reversal in the trend of disaster-related mortality reduction since the beginning of the decade.

While countries were coping with the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, 33 countries reported direct economic losses in 2020 due to other disasters in the amount of $ 16.55 billion, which represented 0.14 per cent of national gross domestic product (GDP). Beyond monetized disaster-related losses, several countries have reported losses in housing, critical infrastructure, and other sectors.

Expenditure on education decreased in 2020 but bounced back in 2021 as schools reopened. The median value of the proportion of government expenditure on education decreased from 13.5 per cent in 2019 to 12.6 per cent in 2020 and then bounced back to 14.6 per cent in 2021.

Source: Progress Towards the Sustainable Development Goals- Report of the Secretary- General 

For more information, please, check: https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/report/2022/

The slowdown in progress on poverty reduction since 2015 has been further set back by the COVID-19 pandemic, with the global rate of extreme poverty rising in 2020 for the first time in over 20 years. The triple threat of COVID-19, conflict and climate change makes the global goal of ending poverty by 2030 unachievable unless immediate and substantial policy actions are taken. The COVID-19 crisis has demonstrated the importance of social protection systems for protecting health, employment and income, with many new social protection measures introduced in 2020 as a result. However, 4 billion people worldwide are still without any social protection, most of whom are poor and vulnerable.

Compounding the threats to poverty eradication posed by climate change and conflict, the pandemic is set to increase the number of poor people in 2020 by between 119 and 124 million, causing the extreme poverty rate to rise for the first time in a generation, from 8.4 per cent in 2019 to 9.5 per cent in 2020 according to “nowcasts”. Of the “new poor”, 8 out of 10 are in middle-income countries and territories. It is predicted that around 600 million people will still be living in extreme poverty by 2030.

Before the pandemic, global extreme poverty had fallen from 10.1 per cent in 2015 to 9.3 per cent in 2017, equivalent to 689 million people living on less than $1.90 a day. However, the rate of decrease had slowed to less than half a percentage point annually in that period, compared to around 1 percentage point annually between 1990 and 2015.

The share of workers around the world living in extreme poverty fell from 14 per cent in 2010 to 7.8 per cent in 2015 and 6.6 per cent in 2019, although progress for young workers was less encouraging. However, the pandemic has severely affected the informal economy, in which the vast majority of the working poor are employed. The crisis also has had a disproportionate impact on the livelihoods of young and female workers, who are already much more likely to be living in poverty. In 2019, young people were twice as likely as adults to be among the working poor.

By 2020, only 47 per cent of the global population was covered effectively by at least one social protection cash benefit, leaving 4 billion people unprotected. However, between 1 February and 31 December 2020, governments of 209 countries and territories announced more than 1,600 mostly short-term social protection measures in response to the COVID-19 crisis.

In 2019, 12,000 disaster fatalities were reported across 72 reporting countries and territories. This is a significant reduction on the figure for 2018, when disaster mortality reported by 105 countries and territories reached a total of 125,000, and is in line with the overall trend in mortality that has been declining since 2005. On the basis of the latest reports submitted as part of the monitoring process under the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030, direct economic losses of $9.3 billion were reported for 2019 by 67 countries and territories, of which 68 per cent or $6.4 billion was recorded for the agricultural sector. 18. Only 30 per cent of all countries and territories with data for the period 2015 – 2018 spent between 15 and 20 per cent of total government expenditure on education, as recommended in the Framework for Action for the implementation of Sustainable Development Goal 4.

Total ODA grants for basic social services and development food aid, which are intended for poverty reduction, represented 0.02 per cent of the gross national income of donors to the Development Assistance Committee in 2019.

Source: Progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals - E/2021/58

Even before the pandemic, the pace of global poverty reduction was decelerating, and it was projected that the global target of ending poverty by 2030 would be missed. The pandemic is pushing tens of millions of persons back into extreme poverty, undoing years of progress. While the pandemic has highlighted the need to strengthen social protection and emergency preparedness and response, those measures are insufficient to safeguard the poor and the vulnerable, who most need them.

After a decline, from 15.7 per cent in 2010 to 10.0 per cent in 2015, the pace of reduction of extreme poverty slowed further, with a nowcast rate of 8.2 per cent in 2019. The pandemic is reversing the trend of poverty reduction. According to the most recent estimates, the global extreme poverty rate is projected to be 8.4 to 8.8 per cent in 2020, which is close to its level in 2017. Consequently, an estimated 40 to 60 million persons will be pushed back into extreme poverty, the first increase in global poverty in more than 20 years.

The share of the world’s workers living in extreme poverty fell, from 14.3 to 8.3 to 7.1 per cent in 2010, 2015 and 2019, respectively. Progress in that regard was less encouraging for young workers: in 2019, 12.8 per cent of the world’s young workers lived in extreme poverty, compared with only 6 per cent of all adult workers. The pandemic is pushing millions of workers into unemployment, underemployment and working poverty.

Based on 2016 data, 55 per cent of the world’s population, about 4 billion persons, did not benefit from any form of social protection, which is critical to help the poorest and the most vulnerable in the current crisis. At least half of the world’s population still lacked full coverage of essential health services, and only 22 per cent of unemployed workers were covered by unemployment benefits.

Hurricanes, floods, earthquakes, wildfires and other extreme natural disasters exacerbate poverty. A total of 80 countries reported disaster-related losses for 2018, including 23,458 deaths and 2,164 persons missing. More than 39 million persons were reported as affected, 29 million of whom saw their livelihood disrupted or destroyed. In terms of direct economic losses, $23.6 billion was reported by countries, 73 per cent of which was attributed to the agricultural sector.

Source: Progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals, Report of the Secretary-General, https://undocs.org/en/E/2020/57

The decline of global extreme poverty continues, but has slowed. The deceleration indicates that the world is not on track to achieve the target of less than 3 per cent of the world living in extreme poverty by 2030. People who continue to live in extreme poverty face deep, entrenched deprivation often exacerbated by violent conflicts and vulnerability to disasters. Strong social protection systems and government spending on key services often help those left behind get back on their feet and escape poverty, but these services need to be brought to scale.

• The share of the world population living in extreme poverty declined to 10 per cent in 2015, down from 16 per cent in 2010 and 36 per cent in 1990. However, the pace of poverty reduction is decelerating, with a “nowcast” of 8.6 per cent in 2018. Moreover, baseline projections suggest that 6 per cent of the world population will still be living in extreme poverty in 2030, missing the target of ending poverty.
• Despite having a job, 8 per cent of the world’s workers and their families still lived in extreme poverty in 2018. The situation remains particularly alarming in sub-Saharan Africa, where the share of working poor stood at 38 per cent in 2018.
• Social protection systems help prevent and reduce poverty and provide a safety net for the vulnerable. However, social protection is not a reality for a large majority of the world’s population. In 2016, 55 per cent – as many as 4 billion people – were not covered by any social protection cash benefits, with large variations across regions: from 87 per cent without coverage in sub-Saharan Africa to 14 per cent in Europe and Northern America.
• Only 22 per cent of unemployed persons receive unemployment cash benefits, only 28 per cent of persons with severe disabilities receive disability cash benefits, only 35 per cent of children worldwide enjoy effective access to social protection and only 41 per cent of women giving birth receive maternity cash benefits.
• Disasters often lead to a downturn in the trajectory of socioeconomic development and exacerbate poverty. From 1998 to 2017, direct economic losses from disasters were estimated at almost $3 trillion, of which climate - related disasters accounted for 77 per cent of the total – a rise of 151 per cent compared with the period from 1978 to 1997 – and climate-related and geophysical disasters claimed an estimated 1.3 million lives. More than 90 per cent of deaths reported internationally were due to disaster events in low- and middle-income countries, and economic losses from disasters as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) were also much higher in these countries.
• Countries have reported progress in the development and implementation of national and local disaster risk reduction strategies in line with the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. As at 31 March 2019, 67 countries had reported progress in such alignment and 24 countries reported that their respective local governments had developed local strategies consistent with national strategies and plans.
• Only one third of all countries spend between 15 per cent and 20 per cent of total government expenditure on education, as recommended in the Education 2030 Framework for Action

Source: Report of the Secretary-General, Special edition: progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals

While extreme poverty has eased considerably since 1990, pockets of the worst forms of poverty persist. Ending poverty requires universal social protection systems aimed at safeguarding all individuals throughout the life cycle. It also requires targeted measures to reduce vulnerability to disasters and to address specific underserved geographic areas within each country.

• The rate of extreme poverty has fallen rapidly: in 2013 it was a third of the 1990 value. The latest global estimate suggests that 11 per cent of the world population, or 783 million people, lived below the extreme poverty threshold in 2013.
• The proportion of the world’s workers living with their families on less than $1.90 per person a day declined significantly over the past two decades, falling from 26.9 per cent in 2000 to 9.2 per cent in 2017.
• Based on 2016 estimates, only 45 per cent of the world’s population were effectively covered by at least one social protection cash benefit.
• In 2017, economic losses attributed to disasters were estimated at over $300 billion. This is among the highest losses in recent years, owing to three major hurricanes affecting the United States of America and several countries across the Caribbean.

Source: Report of the Secretary-General, The Sustainable Development Goals Report 2018

Despite the fact that the global poverty rate has been halved since 2000, intensified efforts are required to boost the incomes, alleviate the suffering and build the resilience of those individuals still living in extreme poverty, in particular in sub-Saharan Africa. Social protection systems need to be expanded and risks need to be mitigated for disaster-prone countries, which also tend to be the most impoverished.

• In 2013, an estimated 767 million people lived below the international poverty line of $1.90 a day — down from 1.7 billion people in 1999. That figure reflects a decrease in the global poverty rate from 28 per cent in 1999 to 11 per cent in 2013. The most significant progress was seen in Eastern and SouthEastern Asia, where the rate declined from 35 per cent in 1999 to 3 per cent in 2013. In contrast, 42 per cent of people in sub-Saharan Africa continued to subsist in conditions of extreme poverty in 2013.
• In 2016, just under 10 per cent of the world’s workers were living with their families on less than $1.90 per person per day, down from 28 per cent in 2000. In the least developed countries, nearly 38 per cent of workers in 2016 were living below the poverty line.
• Social protection systems are fundamental to preventing and reducing poverty and inequality at every stage of people’s lives, through benefits for children, mothers with newborns, persons with disabilities, older persons and thoses persons who are poor and without jobs. Preliminary data show that in 2016, only 45 per cent of the world’s population was effectively protected by a social protection system and that coverage varied widely across countries and regions.
• In 2016, 68 per cent of people above retirement age received a pension. However, that global average masks large regional differences. In Oceania, excluding Australia and New Zealand, and in sub-Saharan Africa, only 10 per cent and 22 per cent, respectively, of people above retirement age received a pension in 2016.
• Other vulnerable groups lack social protections as well. In 2016, only 28 per cent of people with severe disabilities collected disability benefits, only 22 per cent of unemployed individuals worldwide received unemployment benefits and only 41 per cent of women giving birth received maternity benefits.
• Building the resilience of the poor and strengthening disaster risk reduction is a core development strategy for ending extreme poverty in the most afflicted countries. Economic losses from disasters are now reaching an average of $250 billion to $300 billion a year. Disaster risk globally is highly concentrated in low- and lower-middle-income countries. In relation to the size of their economies, small island developing States have borne a disproportionate impact.

Source: Report of the Secretary-General, "Progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals", E/2017/66

• Goal 1 calls for an end to poverty in all its manifestations by 2030. It also aims to ensure social protection for the poor and vulnerable, increase access to basic services and support people harmed by climate-related extreme events and other economic, social and environmental shocks and disasters.
• The international poverty line is currently defined at $1.90 or below per person per day using 2011 United States dollars purchasing power parity (ppp). In the decade beginning in 2002, the proportion of the world’s population living below the poverty line dropped by half, from 26 per cent to 13 per cent. If growth rates during those 10 years prevail for the next 15 years, the global extreme poverty rate will likely fall to 4 per cent by 2030, assuming that growth benefits all income groups of the population equally. However, if the growth rates over the longer period of 20 years prevail, the global poverty rate will likely be around 6 per cent. In other words, eliminating extreme poverty will require a significant change from historical growth rates.
• In 2015, 10.2 per cent of the world’s workers were living with their families on less than $1.90 per person per day, down from 28 per cent in 2000. Young people are especially likely to be among the working poor: 16 per cent of all employed youth aged 15 to 24 were considered working poor, compared to 9 per cent of adults.
• Expanding social protection programmes and targeting appropriate schemes to the poor and most vulnerable can further reduce poverty. Social protection programmes include social assistance, such as cash transfers, school feeding and targeted food assistance, as well as social insurance and labour market programmes, including old-age pensions, disability pensions, unemployment insurance, skills training and wage subsidies, among others.
• Social protections have expanded globally since 2000, as many developing countries adopted policies that afford protection for multiple contingencies. Pension coverage in particular is expanding rapidly. Over half (51 per cent) of people above retirement age received a pension according to data available for the period from 2010 to 2012. Almost all countries have child or maternity benefit programmes, and cash transfer schemes are increasing.
• Despite progress over the past decade, increasing social protection for those most in need remains a priority. Globally, 18,000 children still die each day from poverty-related causes, and only 28 per cent of employed women are effectively protected through contributory and non-contributory maternity cash benefits. Most poor people remain outside social protection systems, especially in low-income countries. Of the entire population, only 1 out of 5 receive any type of social protection in low-income countries, compared with 2 out of 3 in upper-middle-income countries. The coverage gap is particularly acute in sub-Saharan Africa and Southern Asia, where most of the world’s poorest people live. In sub-Saharan Africa, only 15 per cent of those in the bottom income quintile have access to a social protection benefit.
• Disaster risk reduction is essential to ending poverty and fostering sustainable development. Disaster risk is disproportionally higher in poorer countries with weaker institutions. In low- and lower-middle-income countries experiencing rapid economic growth, the exposure of people and assets to natural hazards is increasing at a faster pace than that at which risk-reducing capacities are being strengthened, leading to increased disaster risk.
• Economic losses from internationally reported disasters, principally large-scale disasters, have grown steadily since 1990, reaching an estimated annual average of $200 billion in 2013. Reported damage to housing, schools and health-care facilities, along with agricultural production, shows statistically significant upward trends from 1990 onwards.

Source: Report of the Secretary-General, "Progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals", E/2016/75