Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, full and productive employment and decent work for all

Before the pandemic hit in 2020, average growth of the economy had already slowed. The COVID-19 pandemic has caused the worst global economic recession since the Great Depression and massive damage to working time and income. In 2020, 8.8% of global working hours were lost (relative to the fourth quarter of 2019), equivalent to 255 million fulltime job, which is approximately four times greater than the loss during the global financial crisis in 2009. Young workers and women were particularly hard hit by the crisis in the labour market. The global economy is slowly recovering, although it may remain below pre-pandemic trends for a prolonged period.

Following an average growth of about 2% from 2014 to 2018, global real GDP per capita increased by only 1.3% in 2019 and is estimated to decline by 5.3% in 2020 due to the COVID19 pandemic. Global real GDP per capita is projected to increase again by 3.6% in 2021 and 2.6% in 2022.

The real GDP of LDCs increased by 4.8% in 2019 and is estimated to decline by 1.3% in 2020 because of the disruption unleashed by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Prior to the onset of the pandemic, informal employment represented 60.2% of global employment, which means that 2 billion people worldwide worked in the informal economy in jobs that are characterized by a lack of basic protection, including social protection coverage. More than three-quarters of them, or 1.6 billion informal economy workers, were significantly impacted by the pandemic-related lockdown measures and/or working in the hardest-hit sectors. They face a high risk of falling into poverty and will experience greater challenges in regaining their livelihoods during the recovery period.

The median gender pay gap in countries with data around 2017 (based on hourly earnings) is close to 12%, meaning that in half of all countries with data, women’s hourly earnings are on average 12% lower than men. However, this gender pay gap is a raw calculation based on average hourly earnings without controlling for sector, occupation, educational level or work experience. A global study done by the ILO found a factor-weighted gender pay gap of 19%. In 87% of countries with recent data, professionals earn per hour on average more than double what workers in elementary occupations earn.

Global unemployment increased by 33 million in 2020, with the unemployment rate increasing by 1.1 percentage points to 6.5%. However, unemployment numbers reflect only a small proportion of the jobs lost in the COVID-19 crisis. A further 81 million people became inactive as they could not see any opportunity to search for a job successfully, or they were simply unable to do so owing to the COVID-19 restrictions. Youth and women were particularly hard hit by the crisis, with employment losses in 2020 of 8.7% and 5.0% respectively, as opposed to 3.7% for adults and 3.9% for men.

In 2019, more than one in five of the world’s youth were not in employment, education or training (NEET), almost unchanged since 2005. Quarterly figures show the rate increased from the fourth quarter of 2019 to the second quarter of 2020 in 42 out of 49 countries with data. Since young women were already twice as likely to be jobless and not in education nor training than young men, and as women have been disproportionally pushed into inactivity during the pandemic, the COVID-19 crisis is likely to worsen the NEET gender gap among youth.

The level of national compliance with fundamental labour rights (freedom of association and collective bargaining) had little change between 2015 and 2018.

Global tourism GDP had increased at a higher rate than the rest of the economy over the decade preceding 2019, representing 4.1% of global GDP in 2019, compared to 3.7% in 2008. However, as one of the hardest hit sectors by COVID-19, a reversal in this trend is expected for 2020 and the coming years. Globally, international arrivals decreased by 74% in 2020 compared to 2019, which translates into a loss of $1.3 trillion in inbound tourism expenditure, more than 11 times the loss experienced from the 2009 global crisis. An estimated 100 to 120 million tourism jobs have been put at risk due to the pandemic, disproportionally affecting women. While this affects virtually all countries in the world, SIDS are most dramatically affected.

Globally, the number of ATMs per 100,000 adults grew by more than 50% during the past decade, from 45 in 2010 to 69 in 2019. In the case of commercial bank branches, however, there was a slight reversal in trend with the 2019 level being slightly lower than that observed in 2010.

In 2019, aid for trade commitments decreased by 6% to $53 billion (based on current prices). The most represented sectors were energy (27.9% of total aid for trade), transport and storage (22.6%) and agriculture (17.8%).

In 2020, almost one third of the 107 countries with data have formulated and operationalized a youth employment strategy, while 44 (41.1%) of them have such strategies but did not provide conclusive evidence on their implementation, and just under a quarter of them (24.3%) are in the process of developing one.

Source: Advance unedited copy of 2021 report of the Secretary-General on Progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals

Even before the current crisis, the global economy was growing at a slower rate than in previous years notwithstanding improvements in labour productivity and unemployment. The pandemic has abruptly and profoundly disrupted it, pushing the world into a recession. The unprecedented shock to the world’s labour markets is expected to result in a decrease of around 10.5 per cent in aggregate working hours in the second quarter of 2020, equivalent to 305 million full-time workers. Small and medium enterprises, workers in informal employment, the self-employed, daily wage earners and workers in sectors at the highest risk of disruption have been hit the hardest.

In 2018, the rate of growth of global real GDP per capita was 2 per cent. In addition, the rate for least developed countries was 4.5 per cent in 2018, less than the 7 per cent growth rate targeted in the 2030 Agenda. The pandemic is pushing the world into the worst global economic crisis since the Great Depression.

After a brief interruption during the global economic downturn of 2008–2009, labour productivity has continued to grow; in 2019, it increased by 1.4 per cent from the previous year.

Globally, 61 per cent of workers were in informal employment in 2016. The need to rely on informal employment was more prevalent in sub-Saharan Africa and Central and Southern Asia, where 89 per cent and 86 per cent of workers, respectively, were in such employment. Owing to the unemployment and underemployment caused by the current crisis, some 1.6 billion workers in the informal economy, half of the global workforce, are affected significantly. Globally, the income of informal workers is estimated to fall by 60 per cent in the first months of the crisis.

Data on average hourly earnings cast light on income inequality. In a global study conducted by the International Labour Organization, a factor-weighted gender pay gap of 19 per cent in 2017 was revealed.

In 2019, the global unemployment rate stood at 5 per cent, with the highest rate, 11 per cent, in Northern Africa and Western Asia. The rate was considerably higher among young workers than for adults in all regions in 2019, with the difference reaching 18 percentage points in Northern Africa and Western Asia, 15 percentage points in Central and Southern Asia and 12 percentage points in Latin America and the Caribbean.

In 2019, 22 per cent of the world’s young people were not in employment, education or training, a figure that has hardly changed since 2005.

In 2018, aid for trade commitments remained stable, at $58 billion, based on current prices. South and Central Asia received the highest share thereof (31.4 per cent), followed by sub-Saharan Africa (29.2 per cent). Lower-middle-income countries received 37.5 per cent of aid for trade, followed by least developed countries (36.8 per cent).

According to data for 2019 from 102 countries, 98 per cent had a youth employment strategy or a plan to develop one in the near future.

Source: Progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals, Report of the Secretary-General, https://undocs.org/en/E/2020/57

Inclusive and sustainable economic growth can drive progress and generate the means to implement the Sustainable Development Goals. Globally, labour productivity has increased and unemployment is back to pre-financial crisis levels. However, the global economy is growing at a slower rate. More progress is needed to increase employment opportunities, particularly for young people, reduce informal employment and the gender pay gap and promote safe and secure working environments to create decent work for all.

• In 2017, the global growth rate of real GDP per capita was 1.9 per cent and is expected to remain at about 2 per cent from 2018 to 2020. This is significantly less than the 3 per cent rate attained in 2010 and slightly higher than the 2015 rate of 1.63 per cent. Real GDP growth rate for least developed countries is expected to increase from 4.5 per cent in 2017 to 5.7 per cent in 2020, which is less than the 7 per cent envisioned by the 2030 Agenda.
• Since the global economic downturn of 2009, labour productivity (measured as GDP per employed person) has been increasing in the world, recording positive annual growth rates consistently since 2010. In 2018, the world’s labour productivity increased by 2.1 per cent, its highest annual growth since 2010.
• Informal employment, which has an impact on the adequacy of earnings, occupational safety and health and working conditions, remains pervasive: in three quarters of countries with data on the subject, more than half of all persons employed in non-agriculture sectors are in informal employment.
• Based on data for 62 countries, the median hourly gender pay gap stood at 12 per cent. The median gender pay gap exceeded 20 per cent in managerial and professional occupations, among workers in crafts and related trades and among plant machine operators and assemblers.
• The global unemployment rate has finally recovered from the global economic crisis. In 2018, the global unemployment rate stood at 5.0 per cent – matching pre-crisis levels. Youth were three times more likely to be unemployed than adults.
• In 2018, one fifth of the world’s youth were not in education, employment or training, meaning that they were neither gaining professional experience nor acquiring or developing skills through educational or vocational programmes in their prime years. There is a stark gender difference. Young women were more than twice as likely as young men to be unemployed or outside the labour force and not in education or training.
• Many workers around the world are exposed to undue risks in their workplaces. Based on recent data from some 55 countries, a median of 3 deaths occurred per 100,000 employees and a median of 889 non-fatal injuries occurred per 100,000 employees.
• Access to finance is on the rise globally, but the mode of access seems to be changing with growing reliance on technology. From 2010 to 2017, the number of automated teller machines (ATMs) per 100,000 adults grew by close to 50 per cent from 45 to 66 globally, and from 2.3 to 5.8 in the least developed countries. The number of commercial bank branches per 100,000 adults grew by only 2 per cent between 2010 and 2017, with more customers using digital banking solutions.
• In 2017, aid-for-trade commitments increased to $58 billion and more than doubled when compared to the 2002–2005 baseline, when they represented $23.1 billion. In absolute terms, the increase was highest in the agriculture sector ($1.7 billion), the industry sector ($1.0 billion) and in banking and financial services ($1.0 billion).

Source: Report of the Secretary-General, Special edition: progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals

Globally, labour productivity has increased and the unemployment rate has decreased. However, more progress is needed to increase employment opportunities, especially for young people, reduce informal employment and labour market inequality (particularly in terms of the gender pay gap), promote safe and secure working environments, and improve access to financial services to ensure sustained and inclusive economic growth.

• In 2016, real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita grew at 1.3 per cent globally, less than the 1.7 per cent average growth rate recorded in 2010–2016. For LDCs, the rate fell sharply from 5.7 per cent in 2005–2009 to 2.3 per cent in 2010–2016.
• Labour productivity at the global level, measured as output produced per employed person in constant 2005 US dollars, grew by 2.1 per cent in 2017. This is the fastest growth registered since 2010.
• Globally, 61 per cent of all workers were engaged in informal employment in 2016. Excluding the agricultural sector, 51 per cent of all workers fell into this employment category.
• Data from 45 countries suggest that gender inequality in earnings is still pervasive: in 89 per cent of these countries, the hourly wages of men are, on average, higher than those of women, with a median pay gap of 12.5 per cent.
• The global unemployment rate in 2017 was 5.6 per cent, down from 6.4 per cent in 2000. The decline has slowed since 2009, when it hit 5.9 per cent. Youth are three times more likely to be unemployed than adults, with the global youth unemployment rate at 13 per cent in 2017.
• In high-income countries, almost every adult has an account at a bank or other financial institution, compared to only 35 per cent of adults in low-income countries. Across all regions, women lag behind men in this regard.

Source: Report of the Secretary-General, The Sustainable Development Goals Report 2018

Increasing labour productivity, reducing the unemployment rate, especially for young people, and improving access to financial services and benefits are essential components of sustained and inclusive economic growth.

• The average annual growth rate of real GDP per capita worldwide was 1.6 per cent from 2010 to 2015, compared to 0.9 per cent in 2005-2009. In the least developed countries, the per capita growth rate accelerated from 3.5 per cent in 2000-2004 to 4.6 per cent in 2005-2009, before slowing to 2.5 per cent in 2010-2015. Overall average annual GDP growth in the least developed countries followed a similar trend, decelerating from 7.1 per cent in 2005 -2009 to 4.9 per cent in 2010-2015, below the Sustainable Development Goals target of 7 per cent.
• Labour productivity (annual growth rate of real GDP per worker) globally has slowed from an average annual rate of 2.9 per cent from 2000 to 2008 to 1.9 per cent from 2009 to 2016. The slowdown represents a negative development for the global economy, with adverse effects on living standards and real wages.
• The global unemployment rate stood at 5.7 per cent in 2016, with women more likely to be unemployed than men across all age groups. Youth were almost three times as likely as adults to be unemployed, with unemployment rates of 12.8 per cent and 4.4 per cent, respectively, in 2016. Moreover, in more than 76 per cent of countries with data, more than 1 in 10 youth are neither in the educational system nor working. Young women are more likely than young men to fall into that category in almost 70 per cent of countries with data.
• While the number of children from 5 to 17 years of age who are working has declined from 246 million in 2000 to 168 million in 2012, child labour remains a serious concern. More than half of child labourers (85 million children) participate in hazardous work and 59 per cent of them work in the agricultural sector. Girls have made greater progress than boys, with the number of girls engaged in child labour declining by 40 per cent during the period 2000-2012, compared to a decline of 25 per cent for boys.
• Access to financial services enables individuals and firms to manage changes in income, deal with fluctuating cash flows, accumulate assets and make productive investments. Access to financial services through automated teller machines increased by 55 per cent worldwide from 2010 to 2015. Commercial bank branches grew by 5 per cent during the same period, with the lower growth explained by increased digital access to financial services. Globally, there were 60 automated teller machines and 17 commercial bank branches per 100,000 adults in 2015. From 2011 to 2014, 700 million adults became new account holders and the share of adults with an account at a financial institution increased from 51 per cent to 61 per cent.
• After contracting slightly in 2014, aid for trade rose 5.4 per cent in real terms to reach $53.9 billion in 2015 owing to a recovery in commitments for trade-related infrastructure and further growth in support of banking and agriculture. Aid for trade commitments to the least developed countries increased in 2015 by $4.3 billion, reaching $17.2 billion. The Enhanced Integrated Framework, an aid-for-trade programme dedicated to those countries, started its second phase in 2016 and will run to 2022. Donor commitments to the Framework stood at $55.3 million in 2016, with $17.3 million already disbursed to the Trust Fund.

Source: Report of the Secretary-General, "Progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals", E/2017/66

• Sustained and inclusive economic growth is necessary for achieving sustainable development. The global annual growth rate of real GDP per capita increased by 1.3 per cent in 2014, a significant slowdown compared to 2010 (2.8 per cent growth) and 2000 (3.0 per cent growth). Developing regions grew far faster than developed regions, with average annual growth rates in 2014 of 3.1 per cent and 1.4 per cent, respectively.
• Labour productivity (measured by GDP per worker) spurs economic growth. Growth in labour productivity in developing regions far outpaced that of developed regions, especially in Asia. Between 2010 and 2015, labour productivity grew by 0.9 per cent per year, on average, in developed regions, while rising by 6.7 per cent per year, on average, in Eastern Asia, the region with the fastest growth. Despite rapid growth in some developing regions, labour productivity remains far higher in the developed regions. In 2015, the average worker in developed regions produced 23 times the annual output of an average worker in sub-Saharan Africa (which has the lowest labour productivity in developing regions), and 2.5 times that of an average worker in Western Asia (which has the highest labour productivity in developing regions).
• The global unemployment rate stood at 6.1 per cent in 2015, down from a peak of 6.6 per cent in 2009, mostly owing to a decline in unemployment in the developed regions. Unemployment affects population groups differently. Globally, women and youth (aged 15 to 24) are more likely to face unemployment than men and adults aged 25 and over. In all regions, except Eastern Asia and the developed regions, the unemployment rate among women is higher than that of men. In almost all regions, the rate of youth unemployment is more than twice that of adults.
• Although the number of children engaged in child labour declined globally by one third from 2000 to 2012 (from 246 million to 168 million), more than half of child labourers in 2012 (85 million) were engaged in hazardous forms of work. The incidence of child labour was highest in sub-Saharan Africa, where 21 per cent of children were employed as child labourers. Of all child labourers worldwide, 59 per cent were engaged in agricultural activities in 2012.
• While economic growth and employment are important for economic security, access to financial services is an essential component of inclusive growth. Between 2011 and 2014, the proportion of the world’s adult population with an account at a financial institution or a mobile money service provider increased from 51 per cent to 62 per cent, meaning that 700 million adults became account holders during this period. Financial exclusion disproportionately affected women and the poor. The proportion of women who are account holders is 9 percentage points lower than the proportion of men who are account holders. Moreover, the proportion of account holders among the poorest 40 per cent of households is 14 percentage points lower than among those living in the richest 60 per cent of households.
• In 2014, aid for trade assistance was $54.8 billion, an increase of almost 120 per cent over the period from 2002 to 2005. However, total commitments fell slightly (by $1 billion) in 2014 compared to 2013, driven mainly by a $4.7 billion drop in support for transport and storage. A total of 146 developing countries received aid for trade assistance in 2014, with lower-middle-income countries receiving 39.4 per cent of the total, the least developed countries receiving 26.3 per cent and upper-middle-income countries receiving 19 per cent. On a per capita basis, however, the least developed countries received $10 per capita, more than any other income group and more than twice the global average.

Source: Report of the Secretary-General, "Progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals", E/2016/75